Trump tariff refunds may reach companies but what about consumers?

Last week, the US Supreme Court dismantled Trump’s tariff playbook and now, his administration is responsible to refund $134 billion collected in tariff revenue over the past months.

The key question, however, is whether US consumers, who bore the cost of the tariffs, will receive any refunds.

Since assuming office for his second term, US President Donald Trump introduced a series of tariffs targeting multiple countries. These levies are generally paid by importers, including companies such as Costco, Walmart and Target, rather than directly by consumers. Even though US consumers had to pay for the tariffs, the payment was indirect as they were not the ones making actual payments to the govt.

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The short answer is no — and here’s why. Because consumers paid the tariffs only indirectly, any refunds issued by the US administration will be directed to the entities that originally paid them — the so-called importer of record — rather than to end consumers, CNN reported. How these refunds will be processed remains uncertain, and Trump told reporters that the process could take up to five years.

Businesses bore most of the cost of tariffs, but some of the expense was passed on to shoppers.

Research from the Harvard Business School’s Pricing Lab estimates that consumers indirectly covered about a quarter of tariff costs through higher prices. Overall, the Tax Foundation calculated that tariffs increased the average household’s tax burden by roughly $1,000 last year.

To ease the financial impact, the Trump administration had proposed $2,000 rebate checks for consumers. These payments, however, would require Congressional approval and are intended as stimulus measures rather than true tariff refunds.

It is unclear whether the Supreme Court ruling has affected these potential rebates.

Some companies have sued the government to recover tariff payments. Costco, for example, sought a refund ahead of the Supreme Court ruling. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent had also flagged that customers are unlikely to see any share of the money refunded to companies.

Following the ruling, FedEx became the first major corporation to file a lawsuit against the administration.

Even if companies receive refunds, legal costs and the fact that businesses absorbed most of the tariff burden make passing money back to consumers improbable.